So, just to have some fun (and to give me something to write about), I decided to examine some of the nominations for the Academy Awards in 2017. Under each category, I will list the actual nominees, examine some snubs and any nominees that perhaps should not be included on the list, predict who the Academy will give the award to and then name who the actual winner should be. Some of these will be an attempt at humor, some will be more serious, and all will be completely ludicrous because, like I said, I have not seen many of the movies involved in the nominations. So, instead I'll be stealing thoughts and ideas from other people who have seen them...I mean, I will be utilizing the wise words of movie critics and word of mouth from other best movies lists to provide me with context.
Best documentary feature:
“13th,” Ava DuVernay, Spencer Averick and Howard Barish
“Fire at Sea,” Gianfranco Rosi and Donatella Palermo
“I Am Not Your Negro,” Raoul Peck, Remi Grellety and Hebert Peck
“Life, Animated,” Roger Ross Williams and Julie Goldman
“O.J.: Made in America,” Ezra Edelman and Caroline Waterlow
Snubs/ Overestimations: This is probably the hardest category to make this call for, because documentaries are more subjective than other genres. Plus, who really watches documentaries except for film snobs and students? With that being said, I've seen majority of these movies on best of 2016 lists, with the biggest support for the 7.5 hour O.J. Simpson special on ESPN as well as that one about an autistic boy who uses Disney animated movies to help communicate. If there were any snubs, I'd primarily put "Weiner" at the top of the list, because apparently everyone loves the combination of sex scandals and politics. The other doc. I'd nominate is "Almost Holy", which is about a pastor in Ukraine using his faith to rescue his people from drugs, abuse, and crime by any force necessary (i.e. literally kicking ass). Wouldn't you rather see a real-life Daredevil movie nominated than whatever "Fire at Sea" was about?
Snubs/ Overestimations: This is probably the hardest category to make this call for, because documentaries are more subjective than other genres. Plus, who really watches documentaries except for film snobs and students? With that being said, I've seen majority of these movies on best of 2016 lists, with the biggest support for the 7.5 hour O.J. Simpson special on ESPN as well as that one about an autistic boy who uses Disney animated movies to help communicate. If there were any snubs, I'd primarily put "Weiner" at the top of the list, because apparently everyone loves the combination of sex scandals and politics. The other doc. I'd nominate is "Almost Holy", which is about a pastor in Ukraine using his faith to rescue his people from drugs, abuse, and crime by any force necessary (i.e. literally kicking ass). Wouldn't you rather see a real-life Daredevil movie nominated than whatever "Fire at Sea" was about?
What SHOULD Win: "Fire at Sea". While I joked above, "Fire at Sea" is about probably one of the greatest globally human conflicts currently going on, that being the crisis of refugees and immigrants fleeing the Middle East mainly into Europe.
Cinematography:
“Arrival,” Bradford Young
“La La Land,” Linus Sandgren
“Lion,” Greig Fraser
“Moonlight,” James Laxton
“Silence,” Rodrigo Prieto
“Arrival,” Bradford Young
“La La Land,” Linus Sandgren
“Lion,” Greig Fraser
“Moonlight,” James Laxton
“Silence,” Rodrigo Prieto
Snubs/ Overestimations: I think the snubs are probably easier to pick out in a category like this than others. Mainly because each movie demands a different look/ aesthetic, so the grades given for cinematography are much more subjective, making it harder to eliminate a movie from this list. With that being said, "Doctor Strange" was obviously snubbed. Yeah, it's nominated for visual effects, but the movie's best quality is its overall look, having to make reality look real, having to make magic look uniquely real, and then blending both together into a credible story and look based upon yet separate from all of the Marvel movies before it. "Doctor Strange" is a visual feast! "Birth of a Nation" is the other snub. Mainly because, in a movie about historically racist issues between people with black and white skin tones, the movie is filtered with black and white imagery. Not totally colorless, but tonally like a computerized system gave the tone of colors contrasting shades to make the black and white stand out more.
Who WILL Win: "La La Land"! These colors pop out a lot, but they are not neon or overblown. The movie is set in reality like "Silence" or "Lion", but with a sense of magical realism that brings things to life in a much more vibrant, urgent, and fun way.
What SHOULD Win: "Doctor Strange". If there's one movie this whole year whose hype and positive reviews solely depended upon its high quality cinematography alone, it's this Marvel movie right here.
Who WILL Win: "La La Land"! These colors pop out a lot, but they are not neon or overblown. The movie is set in reality like "Silence" or "Lion", but with a sense of magical realism that brings things to life in a much more vibrant, urgent, and fun way.
What SHOULD Win: "Doctor Strange". If there's one movie this whole year whose hype and positive reviews solely depended upon its high quality cinematography alone, it's this Marvel movie right here.
Animated feature:
“Kubo and the Two Strings,” Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner
“Moana,” John Musker, Ron Clements and Osnat Shurer
“My Life as a Zucchini,” Claude Barras and Max Karli
“The Red Turtle,” Michael Dudok de Wit and Toshio Suzuki
“Zootopia,” Byron Howard, Rich Moore and Clark Spencer
“Kubo and the Two Strings,” Travis Knight and Arianne Sutner
“Moana,” John Musker, Ron Clements and Osnat Shurer
“My Life as a Zucchini,” Claude Barras and Max Karli
“The Red Turtle,” Michael Dudok de Wit and Toshio Suzuki
“Zootopia,” Byron Howard, Rich Moore and Clark Spencer
Snubs/ Overestimations: The sad thing is, even with the incredibly large amount of animated movies that came out this year, this might be the best possible list of nominees. Disney made some very popular films involving the trendy themes surrounding diversity. Pixar screwed up a sequel. Dreamworks made some lazy generic animal features. Laika, already the best secondary animation company after those giants listed above, made one of their best movies ever. Any movie with Studio Ghibli attached to it automatically gets favored buzz, and "The Red Turtle" actually looks different and interesting. I'm not sure about the Zucchini choice, but it sounds more like a horror film to me. While I can respect claymation as much as the next man, this movie's particular style is uglier than any of Aardman's designs. The only movie that could have possibly been put on this list and would've made sense was "April and the Extraordinary World", an intriguing steam punk piece from the same people who already have Oscar connections due to Persepolis. Replace Zucchini with April, I say. It matches the Oscar profile better.
What WILL Win: My prediction is "Zootopia". It looked better and was more well received overall than Disney's other piece "Moana", and it is very thematically trendy, connecting to our current sociopolitical climate. The Oscars seem to like movies about sociopolitical trends for some reason.
What SHOULD Win: "Kubo and the Two Strings". The only movie on this list I've actually seen is Kubo but that's not why I'm saying it should win. It should win because the artistic style was vastly different than the other animated movies, and even superior to previous Laika animations. It's much more gorgeous than the Zucchini choice, its closest comparison arts-wise. It had an intriguing story, some plot twists and turns, and fun likable characters in an environment that was familiar yet refreshingly new.
What WILL Win: My prediction is "Zootopia". It looked better and was more well received overall than Disney's other piece "Moana", and it is very thematically trendy, connecting to our current sociopolitical climate. The Oscars seem to like movies about sociopolitical trends for some reason.
What SHOULD Win: "Kubo and the Two Strings". The only movie on this list I've actually seen is Kubo but that's not why I'm saying it should win. It should win because the artistic style was vastly different than the other animated movies, and even superior to previous Laika animations. It's much more gorgeous than the Zucchini choice, its closest comparison arts-wise. It had an intriguing story, some plot twists and turns, and fun likable characters in an environment that was familiar yet refreshingly new.
Best director:
“La La Land,” Damien Chazelle
“Hacksaw Ridge,” Mel Gibson
“Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins
“Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan
“Arrival,” Denis Villeneuve
“Hacksaw Ridge,” Mel Gibson
“Moonlight,” Barry Jenkins
“Manchester by the Sea,” Kenneth Lonergan
“Arrival,” Denis Villeneuve
Snubs/Overestimations: This is also the kind of category where the snubs are much more noticeable than any overestimations. Majority of these directors have a handful or less of big budget, Hollywood movies to their credits, but at the same time their movies turned out to be some of the best this year. Only Denis Villeneuve and Mel Gibson have the street cred experience to match some of the best/ well known directors working today, and both deserve to be on this list. The snubs that are most obvious include Martin Scorsese for Silence", in part or mainly because it's a project he's been developing for nearly three decades and he still crafted a captivating drama. The other snub is Denzel Washington for "Fences", since he had to juggle multiple responsibilities and also does not have as much experience in this particular director's chair like Scorcese or Gibson.
Who WILL Win:The controversial pick would be Mel Gibson, but I don't think "Hacksaw Ridge" has enough steam to get him to the finish line. Damien Chazelle is a likely candidate since he has clout from "Whiplash" and this is one of the most appealing movies for the Academy to award, not to mention the fact that this is his second major motion picture that he wrote AND directed. My money, however, would be on Barry Jenkins for directing a dramatic piece about a mature subject and doing it with plenty of creative and artistry, all the while leading a company of minority cast and crew to much success.
Who SHOULD Win: Martin Scorsese. The dude had to work decades to make this movie and he created a heartwrenching thinkpiece that only adds another feather in his cap of noteworthy dramatic movies. And he probably deserves to win for this even more than he did "The Departed".
Supporting actress:
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Snubs/Overestimations: None apparently. This is THE EXACT SAME LIST of nominees as the Golden Globes AND The Screen Actors Guild Awards. Is Hollywood just rigging the system on this one?
Who WILL Win: Often times in this category, it's usually the lady with the most buzz that gets the award. Right now, Viola Davis has the most buzz, so Viola Davis will win.
Who SHOULD Win: Viola Davis. All of the actresses in all the other movies were overshadowed by the other actors in those movies. Viola Davis, meanwhile, kept up right alongside with Denzel Washington and brought a strong A-Game to the screen. Plus, she was the one awarded the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Award
Viola Davis, “Fences”
Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”
Nicole Kidman, “Lion”
Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”
Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Snubs/Overestimations: None apparently. This is THE EXACT SAME LIST of nominees as the Golden Globes AND The Screen Actors Guild Awards. Is Hollywood just rigging the system on this one?
Who WILL Win: Often times in this category, it's usually the lady with the most buzz that gets the award. Right now, Viola Davis has the most buzz, so Viola Davis will win.
Who SHOULD Win: Viola Davis. All of the actresses in all the other movies were overshadowed by the other actors in those movies. Viola Davis, meanwhile, kept up right alongside with Denzel Washington and brought a strong A-Game to the screen. Plus, she was the one awarded the Golden Globe and the Screen Actors Guild Award
Supporting actor:
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”
Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”
Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”
Dev Patel, “Lion”
Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Snubs/ Overestimations: Across the board, I think the Academy overestimated "Lion". Yes, it's on other people's best of lists, but not nearly as much as other movies, and the story sounds dry to the bone, though I'm sure Dev Patel is one of the best things about the movie. The other overestimation I think is Lucas Hedges, and yes I am saying that just because he is a kid. I think with a great director, stupendous actors, and a great script, you can surround any teen or kid in a movie with enough quality and skill to train them enough to do well. Compare Jacob Tremblay between "The Smurfs 2" and "Room". One major snub in my opinion was Sam Neill in Hunt for the Wilderpeople. The man had to fake a New Zealand accent for goodness sake! That and he had to pretend to be a disgruntled old bushwhacker with a story arc of becoming a caring father figure, and he had to do that in an authentically funny way. The other snub for me, coming out of nowhere, is Alden Ehrenreich as Hobie Doyle in "Hail, Caesar!". In an almost forgettable movie filled with Hollywood A-listers, Ehrenreich's character was the best part of the movie. His line delivery was hilarious, his accent got your attention, and he was bringing us all along on a good time.
Who WILL Win: In all likelihood, it's going to be Mahershala Ali for his role in Moonlight. I don't have any funny quips or random remarks about this choice.
Who SHOULD Win: Jeff Bridges. He was despicably hilarious in "Hell or High Water". His snarky, snappy dialogue with his deputy were some of the movie's highlights for me. Yet, his character did change through an arc, and Jeff Bridges showed he had range between funny and dramatic, between deadly serious and playfully arrogant. He made it look so easy too.
Who WILL Win: In all likelihood, it's going to be Mahershala Ali for his role in Moonlight. I don't have any funny quips or random remarks about this choice.
Who SHOULD Win: Jeff Bridges. He was despicably hilarious in "Hell or High Water". His snarky, snappy dialogue with his deputy were some of the movie's highlights for me. Yet, his character did change through an arc, and Jeff Bridges showed he had range between funny and dramatic, between deadly serious and playfully arrogant. He made it look so easy too.
Lead actor:
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land,”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”
Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”
Ryan Gosling, “La La Land,”
Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”
Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Snubs/ Overestimations: The biggest overestimation in this category is Viggo Mortensen. However much I like the man for playing Aragorn and leading other fantastic movies, this is not the first time we've seen him play a grizzled outcast authority figure (see "The Road" for previous evidence). Viggo does plenty of good work, but this role didn't seem like too much of a stretch. I'm surprised Adam Driver is left out, in part because of the range that he has shown not just in previous years, but also in this one year between playing a Portuguese Jesuit, a U.S. government psycho operative, and a New Jersey bus driver. His role in "Paterson" has driven this movie to the top of a lot of best of 2016 lists. The other snub I think is "Swiss Army Man" for both Paul Dano & Daniel Radcliffe. Say what you will about how weird the movie is, but Daniel Radcliffe had to play a talking, farting corpse with so many strange powers and a reversal of limitations while Paul Dano had to give a dramatic and funny performance playing off of Radcliffe's character.
Who WILL Win: This one is a little trickier, because there's lots of buzz and recognition for more than just one of these guys. Will it be Ryan Gosling, whose movie leads the number of nominations and has tons of favoritism going for him? Will it be Denzel Washington, the well established actor who improved upon his own stage performance as well as balanced multiple responsibilities for the project? I think, despite recent scandal and controversy, Casey Affleck has the best chance of winning the award. He has the most buzz (at the moment), he also has a well established career, and it's often the most emotionally dramatic roles that take the acting award. So, if the controversy doesn't overshadow him, Affleck wins. (Note: Should the controversy overtake Affleck, pretend I predicted that Denzel will win).
Who SHOULD Win: Andrew Garfield. Another actor who showed plenty of dramatic acting capabilities. Plus he delivered two great performances based on strong religious convictions. Garfield for be awarded for his performance in "Hacksaw Ridge" based on his great representation of a real life man, his ability to struggle against and overcome such strong obstacles while maintaining his faith,and for the emotional depth he showed.
Who WILL Win: This one is a little trickier, because there's lots of buzz and recognition for more than just one of these guys. Will it be Ryan Gosling, whose movie leads the number of nominations and has tons of favoritism going for him? Will it be Denzel Washington, the well established actor who improved upon his own stage performance as well as balanced multiple responsibilities for the project? I think, despite recent scandal and controversy, Casey Affleck has the best chance of winning the award. He has the most buzz (at the moment), he also has a well established career, and it's often the most emotionally dramatic roles that take the acting award. So, if the controversy doesn't overshadow him, Affleck wins. (Note: Should the controversy overtake Affleck, pretend I predicted that Denzel will win).
Who SHOULD Win: Andrew Garfield. Another actor who showed plenty of dramatic acting capabilities. Plus he delivered two great performances based on strong religious convictions. Garfield for be awarded for his performance in "Hacksaw Ridge" based on his great representation of a real life man, his ability to struggle against and overcome such strong obstacles while maintaining his faith,and for the emotional depth he showed.
Lead actress:
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”
Ruth Negga, “Loving”
Natalie Portman, “Jackie”
Emma Stone, “La La Land”
Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Snubs and Overestimations: It's hard to say if any of these ladies were overestimated in this category because most of these performances come from movies otherwise ignored by the Academy so no one has really seen or heard of these movies outside of watching these leading ladies carry the weight of the movie (with the exception of "La La Land" of course). The biggest snub in this category, as everyone else has pointed out, is Amy Adams for "Arrival". Another performer who showed range in multiple roles this year, Amy Adams is one of the most talked about components of one of the most talked about movies of the year. Without her, "Arrival" would probably not succeed as much as it has.
Who WILL Win: Meryl Streep. She's essentially a shoe-in because of her clout and status. Though I do not fully understand the industry's fascination with Meryl Streep. Majority of the movies I know of that have her in starring roles are problematic for one of two reasons, either A) The movie itself is not good or B) Meryl Streep herself is not outstanding in her role. The only time I can think off the top of my head where both were the case is "The Deer Hunter", and that was 38 YEARS AGO!
Who SHOULD Win: Amy Adams. See snub reasons above.
Who WILL Win: Meryl Streep. She's essentially a shoe-in because of her clout and status. Though I do not fully understand the industry's fascination with Meryl Streep. Majority of the movies I know of that have her in starring roles are problematic for one of two reasons, either A) The movie itself is not good or B) Meryl Streep herself is not outstanding in her role. The only time I can think off the top of my head where both were the case is "The Deer Hunter", and that was 38 YEARS AGO!
Who SHOULD Win: Amy Adams. See snub reasons above.
Best picture:
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
“Arrival”
“Fences”
“Hacksaw Ridge”
“Hell or High Water”
“Hidden Figures”
“La La Land”
“Lion”
“Manchester by the Sea”
“Moonlight”
Snubs/ Overestimations: Oh boy, where to begin on this one? Let's start with overestimations. Again, the Academy seems to think more highly of "Lion" than other groups or lists. "Hidden Figures" is the only movie on this list that is surprisingly lacking in other categories. Some people think that there were snubs for HF in other categories, but I think the theme is what overall propelled the movie to this list while it lacked in the other departments (compared to the other movies it is competing against). Plus I think "Crash" proved that an important theme does not equal a movie good enough to truly deserve the Oscar.
Now, the snubs. The most obvious one is "Silence" which should've gotten more nominations in more categories. It's got all of the drama, themes, history, and edginess that the Academy usually loves. "Birth of a Nation" is the next obvious snub, because again it has the drama and the themes that are usually award worthy, but perhaps the scandal of the people involved is what kept it off the list (though if scandal is enough to get you booted, why would Affleck still be nominated? I don't know...). Shockingly, "Hail Caesar!", a movie all about the entertainment industry and the golden age of cinema, which Hollywood loves to pat itself on the back for, did not get nominated. Finally, if the Academy were to expand their horizons a little bit past the drama genre, they'd see how well received and how entertaining "The Witch" and "Captain America: Civil War" were and nominate them for Best Picture.
Who WILL Win: "La La Land". Closely followed by "Moonlight". It's no secret that the Academy loves movies about the entertainment industry (see "Birdman" and "The Artist"), which isn't to say that these kinds of movies are not worthy of their nominations. On the contrary, these are usually quite high quality in terms of artistry and entertainment. I'm just saying, based on previous history and jokes on the internet, that Hollywood loves to pat itself on the back with awards. "La La Land" is kind of a pat on the back, but it's also thematically uplifting and genuinely inspiring, a pleasant blend of old school and modern entertainment. "Moonlight" may be the most dramatic and most mature and have the most buzz outside of "La La Land".
Who SHOULD Win: "Arrival". For something that should've a melodramatic sci-fi snoozefest, "Arrival" actually managed to keep people's attention. I've heard talks not just about how wonderful Amy Adams is, but also about the positive reinforcement of the value of life. The director went from totally dark and depressing real life dramas ("Prisoners" and "Sicario") into the realm of realistic sci-fi that is not all too dark and depressing. Plus, it's a thinking man's sci-fi, and the science and themes on top of the rest should be more than enough to garner an award.
Random Ending: If I were the Academy and actually only had 5 movies to put in the Best Movie category, I would put "Arrival", "La La Land", "Moonlight", "Manchester by the Sea", and "Silence".
Now, the snubs. The most obvious one is "Silence" which should've gotten more nominations in more categories. It's got all of the drama, themes, history, and edginess that the Academy usually loves. "Birth of a Nation" is the next obvious snub, because again it has the drama and the themes that are usually award worthy, but perhaps the scandal of the people involved is what kept it off the list (though if scandal is enough to get you booted, why would Affleck still be nominated? I don't know...). Shockingly, "Hail Caesar!", a movie all about the entertainment industry and the golden age of cinema, which Hollywood loves to pat itself on the back for, did not get nominated. Finally, if the Academy were to expand their horizons a little bit past the drama genre, they'd see how well received and how entertaining "The Witch" and "Captain America: Civil War" were and nominate them for Best Picture.
Who WILL Win: "La La Land". Closely followed by "Moonlight". It's no secret that the Academy loves movies about the entertainment industry (see "Birdman" and "The Artist"), which isn't to say that these kinds of movies are not worthy of their nominations. On the contrary, these are usually quite high quality in terms of artistry and entertainment. I'm just saying, based on previous history and jokes on the internet, that Hollywood loves to pat itself on the back with awards. "La La Land" is kind of a pat on the back, but it's also thematically uplifting and genuinely inspiring, a pleasant blend of old school and modern entertainment. "Moonlight" may be the most dramatic and most mature and have the most buzz outside of "La La Land".
Who SHOULD Win: "Arrival". For something that should've a melodramatic sci-fi snoozefest, "Arrival" actually managed to keep people's attention. I've heard talks not just about how wonderful Amy Adams is, but also about the positive reinforcement of the value of life. The director went from totally dark and depressing real life dramas ("Prisoners" and "Sicario") into the realm of realistic sci-fi that is not all too dark and depressing. Plus, it's a thinking man's sci-fi, and the science and themes on top of the rest should be more than enough to garner an award.
Random Ending: If I were the Academy and actually only had 5 movies to put in the Best Movie category, I would put "Arrival", "La La Land", "Moonlight", "Manchester by the Sea", and "Silence".
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